raptor wrote:
It's never that far off, is it.
I did a predictions thread about 5 or so years ago, and I was trying to find it to see how off I was. Couldn't find it, but I found the numbers in this staggering.
It's on my bucket list to own a 3d printer, but in 5 years I might see it and it'll look to me like I put "having a toaster" on my bucket list. Everyone will have one, and they won't really be special anymore.
- R
In five years, I see it being more like saying "I have a band saw". The very nature of printing makes it not something that the average person will want to mess with regularly. Clogged nozzles, print jobs messing up halfway through, slow print times for anything of quality, these will all make it the realm of the dedicated hobbyist/enthusiast. I think they'll continue to become more affordable and have better resolution, but the time for them to be the real-world equivalent of the in-home replicator is still a bit far off. The models readily available to the public will be much more polished than the ones currently available, but they'll still have issues. They'll be aimed at small business and the 'prosumer' market. You may even be able to order them from the same place you'd order a computer or laser/inkjet printer today. The general public will still look at them as a novelty or of little use. Also, because of the way the printers work, pieces will never be as finished looking as an injection molded piece without some clean-up work on the print. This will deter some people from wanting to mess with them.
I think in five years or less, you, and others with the desire, will have fused media printers (like the printers currently available as kits and such) and you'll show them to friends or family who come to visit will be impressed, much like seeing a well-equipped workshop now. These printers will be available in various configurations, such as multiple extruders to allow multiple colors or more easily removable support material or armatures for removing prints from the print bed for more automated printing. At the same time, the big thing for tinkerers and early adopters will be sintering printers (like what pro companies like Shapeways use), which will be where the fused-media printers are today. Kits and pre-builts will be available and you'll start seeing people printing in a variety of materials, including metal, plastic, wax and more. (Just imagine being able to print out T-hooks to make your own ARAH-style figures or to fix figures with busted T-hooks.)
I also think you'll see a lot of people offering printing services like you see casting services offered today. Once the prices and reliability of printers get to the point where anyone who wants one can get one, I think you'll see a big change in the hobby, too. Instead of buying a cast or print from someone, you'll buy a file to run through your printer to print the item yourself. This will also lead to some tricky issues, as you might buy a model with the express permission to print it a single time, but what will keep you from multiple prints, or giving it away to others to print? Also, how will it affect the collector's market? There will always be purists who want original pieces, but what about the guy who just wants a physical representation of an item and doesn't care if it's original or a repro? I'm not in the hobby for a monetary aspect, but I can see it hurting the secondary market some.